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2004.11.27

農業助成金についての考え方

 バナナの関税ってどれぐらいかご存知でしょうか?
 実は、バナナの関税には10%と20%の2種類があるんです。
 2種類の税率がどうやって使われているかというと、これがなんと季節で切り替わる。
 夏は10%、冬は20%。
 どうやらこれは、ミカンやリンゴなど冬の出荷が多い日本の果物農家を保護するための制度らしいのです。
 つまり、冬にバナナが安いとミカンやリンゴの売上が落ちる、と。
 なんだか分かるような分からないような、ちょっと釈然としない感じです。
 では、日本人の主食、コメの関税はどうなっているのでしょうか?
 コメの関税は複数の種類があるというようなことはありませんが、物凄く高い。
 なんとコメの関税は490%です。
 例えばカリフォルニア米が10kg1000円だとすると、これに4900円もの関税がつき、5900円にもなってしまうのです。
 そのおかげか、コメの自給率は100%です。

 現在日本は、FTA戦略を促進するために、農産物の関税引き下げがいよいよ避けられない情勢となっています。
 中国のFTA戦略には目覚しいものがあり、着実に成果をあげつつあります。
 対して日本はと言えば、農産物を除外して締結したシンガポールとと、オレンジ果汁や豚肉で農林族ともめにもめてようやく締結にこぎつけたメキシコとの2ヶ国のみ。
 明らかに出遅れています。
 やはりボトルネックになっているのは、農業問題なわけです。
 食糧自給率は国力を維持する上で非常に重要なものです。
 食糧自給率というものは、国際社会での発言力というものの背景に大きな影響を及ぼす重要なファクターであると考えられます。
 もちろん、これは鎖国をして国際社会から孤立するような方向性を想定してのことではありません。
 しかしながら、いざとなったら自国で食料が賄えるという要素は、国際社会で日本が活動していく上で、やはり重要な意味を持っているわけです。
 では、日本の食糧自給率がどれぐらいかと言いますと、40%です。
 これは先進7ヵ国では最低です。
 少なくとも現在の水準は維持しなければいけない。できれば、少しずつでもいいからこれを上昇させていかなければいいけない、というのが日本の食糧自給率の現状です。
 食糧自給率は国内農業の保護政策、とりわけ関税によって維持されています。
 具体的には輸入農産物に高い関税を課すことによって、価格競争力に劣る国内農家を保護しているわけです。
 しかし、FTAを進めていくためには、この関税を引き下げる、或いはもっと進んで関税を撤廃していかなければならない。
 ここに、大きなジレンマがあるわけです。 

 この問題の解決策として、国内農家への助成金制度というものが言われていますが、わたしはこの制度について非常な疑問を持っています。今回言いたいのは、実はこのことなのです。 
 これは、具体的には「直接支払い制度」(土地利用型の作物と面積に応じて農家に助成金を支給する政策)と言われているものです。
 つまり、関税を引き下げて、安い輸入農産物が入ってくるようにはなるが、国内農家には助成金を直接出して保護をしようというわけです。
 一見良さそうに思えるこの制度ですが、しかし、考えてもみてください。
 たとえば、先ほどのコメの例で言いましょう。
 日本米は、現在だいたい10kg5000円ぐらいが相場です。
 先ほどの10kg1000円のカリフォルニア米が、関税が無くなってそのままの値段で売られるようになったとしましょう。
 さすがに、1000円に対して5000円では日本米はなかなか売れるものではありません。
 そこで日本米も1000円まで値下げをして販売したとします。
 仮に日本米の原価が3000円だったとすると、10kg売れる度に、2000円の損失となる、いわゆる逆ざやとなるわけです。
 売れば売るほど損が出る。それを国からの援助をもらうことで穴埋めし、生計を立てていく。
 果たして、このような状態が健全な産業といえるでしょうか?
 わたしは、少なくとも逆ざやではなく、利ざやが1円でもある状態でなければ、とても健全なものにはならないと思います。

 そこで、日本の農業が生き残る道には2つの方向性があると考えられます。
 1つは、「高級ブランド化」です。
 たとえば、ブランド米として知られる魚沼産コシヒカリは、10kg8000円でも売れています。
 有機・無農薬など、日本産の付加価値の高い農産物は価格が高くても非常に強い競争力を持っており、国産の農産物の一部は中国などにも輸出され、珍重されています。
 こういった高級ブランドとして通用する高品位の農産物の生産に特化することによって、低価格の輸入農産物との棲み分けをしていくということです。
 そしてもう1つの方向は、「合理化・大量生産」です。
 確かに日本の人件費は中国などと比べると高く、価格競争力に差が出来てしまうのは仕方がないようにも思えるのですが、しかし、果たして日本の農業はこれ以上出来ないというぐらいにコスト削減や効率化を突き詰めたものなのでしょうか。
 わたしは、必ずしもそうではないと考えています。
 関税などによってお国からの過保護を受けつづけてきた日本の農業には、無駄も多いのではないかと思うのです。
 例えば、株式会社による農地取得が規制改革特区での焦点になっていますが、これなどは合理化・大量生産による改革を推し進めるエンジンになるものだと考えています。
 兼業農家で仕方無しに続けているような農家などから、株式会社が農地を買い集め、合理的な大量生産をすれば、必ずコストを削減して効率的な農業経営ができるはずです。
 例えば、原価3000円だったものを1500円にまで落とす。品質面では「高級ブランド」程には及ばないまでも輸入品よりは優良なものを作り、これを2000円で売る。
 この場合、利ざやは500円。必ずしも大きくはありませんが、これを大量生産・大量販売していくわけです。
 こういう方向性でいけば、やはり1000円で売られる輸入農産物とも棲み分けをしていくことができるはずです。
 「高級ブランド」に対して、「準高級ブランド」といったところでしょうか。
 いずれにしても、これらが国内向けに通用するのであれば、当然それは輸出品としても通用するはずです。
 輸入・輸出が拮抗してくれば、食糧自給率は100%。輸出が増えれば150%や200%とすることもできます。
 お互いに関税がない、自由貿易協定での農業というものは正にこうゆうものだと思うわけです。

 つまり、商品としての国際競争力を高める以外に日本の農業の生きる道はないと思うわけです。
 このことを大前提として、「直接支払い制度」はあくまで「過渡的」或いは「補助的」な保護制度と位置付けなければいけないと思うわけです。
 例えば、売値が2000円に対して原価3000円だとすれば、1000円の逆ざやです。
 これを原価を削減し、2500円にまで下げられたとします。それでも500円の逆ざやです。
 この状態でも農業経営が続けらるように、例えば10kg売れる度に1000円分の補填が得られるような程度の「直接払い」を導入したとします。
 そうすれば、原価2500円のものを2000円で売ったとしても、プラス1000円の補填がありますから、500円の利ざやが発生する勘定となります。
 しかし、このような過保護な援助が無期限に続けられるようなことがあってはいけません。
 例えば、この1000円分の補填は1年ごとに100円ずつ削減されていく、というようなかたちが望ましいでしょう。
 農家はその間に、原価削減などに取り組むわけです。
 例えば、1800円にまで原価が削減できたとすれば、2000円で売った場合、補助金がなくなったとして200円の利ざやを得ることができます。これに更に200円分の補助金がついて、実質利益400円。例えば、このような程度のものであれば、補助的な制度として無期限に継続させてもいいでしょう。
 もちろん、「直接支払い制度」は取引ごとに給付するものはありませんから、ここでの例えはあくまでそういう金額相当になるように支払うという意味です。ですから、逆ざやを脱却するということは非常に重要な意味合いを持ちます。
 逆ざやでも農業経営を続けられるように、大幅な援助をするというのが「過渡的」保護。
 逆ざやは脱却したが、薄利な状態でも農業経営ができるように助成をするのが「補助的」保護というわけです。

 農業改革の方針はこのような考え方で進めるべきだろうというのが、わたしの考えです。
 とくに真新しいことや奇抜なことを言っているつもりはありませんが、こういう基本的な方法論があまりにも語られていないというところに大きな問題があるのではないかと思います。
 FTAによって貿易を活性化させるという経済の基本戦略についてもそうです。
 とにかく、この国に足りないのは「国家戦略の全体的なビジョン」です。
 政治がこういうことをきちんと語らないのも問題ですが、わたしたち一人一人がちゃんと当事者意識をもって考えていくということも非常に大事なことなのだとわたしは思います。

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